The “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI”
25 June 2025
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
When an AI confidently claims the moon is made of cheese, it’s funny but troubling.
Generative AI can dazzle. However, it’s prone to deliver fiction as fact, a phenomenon known as AI hallucinations. Enter the “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI,” created by Scott M. Graffius. This satirical yet sharp tool exposes and scores AI’s factual errors, holding AI accountable.
The idea for the index emerged after Graffius detailed the alarming performance of the Project Management Institute’s (PMI) AI tool, which repeatedly fabricated facts and got project management basics wrong. That experience stressed the need for a simple way to spotlight AI-generated misinformation.
The “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI” scores the frequency and significance of inaccuracies, exposing the problem with clear metrics. It rates AI on a scale of 0 to 10: 0 signals accuracy and 10 denotes blazing fabrications. The following example shows the index for the PMI’s AI tool.
Recommended practices for using generative AI include:
When AI gets things wrong, using its output can spread false information, damage reputations, and create other issues. The “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI” playfully but pointedly spotlights these errors, underscoring the importance of verifying AI outputs before acting on them.
More
Continue reading for:
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About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is an AI, Agile, and Project Management/PMO leader, researcher, author, and speaker. Along the way, he spearheaded initiatives that have generated over $2.3 billion in impact for organizations across tech, entertainment, finance, healthcare, and beyond. The following sections provide additional information on his experience, contributions, and influence.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on tech (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops. To date, Graffius has conducted 94 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), and more.
With an average rating of 4.81 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The speaker engagement request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
Additional details are here.
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Acclaimed Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 100 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his 'Phases of Team Development' as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development. First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams. Its adoption by esteemed organizations such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others, highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence.
The 2025 edition of Graffius' "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems. Referenced and applied by leading entities such as the Center for Direct Marketing, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Pinterest Inc., and PNAS, among others, his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2025 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management through his leadership, research, writing, and real-world impact. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
When an AI confidently claims the moon is made of cheese, it’s funny but troubling.
Generative AI can dazzle. However, it’s prone to deliver fiction as fact, a phenomenon known as AI hallucinations. Enter the “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI,” created by Scott M. Graffius. This satirical yet sharp tool exposes and scores AI’s factual errors, holding AI accountable.
The idea for the index emerged after Graffius detailed the alarming performance of the Project Management Institute’s (PMI) AI tool, which repeatedly fabricated facts and got project management basics wrong. That experience stressed the need for a simple way to spotlight AI-generated misinformation.
The “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI” scores the frequency and significance of inaccuracies, exposing the problem with clear metrics. It rates AI on a scale of 0 to 10: 0 signals accuracy and 10 denotes blazing fabrications. The following example shows the index for the PMI’s AI tool.
Recommended practices for using generative AI include:
- Use resources like the “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI” to gain insights on reliability and use the AI tools with the best ratings.
- Verify AI output claims by tracking down cited sources and cross-checking information against trusted references, like peer-reviewed journals or official records.
When AI gets things wrong, using its output can spread false information, damage reputations, and create other issues. The “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI” playfully but pointedly spotlights these errors, underscoring the importance of verifying AI outputs before acting on them.
More
Continue reading for:
- Additional Articles,
- About Scott M. Graffius,
- How to Cite This Article,
- and more.
Additional Articles
You may also be interested in these relatively recent articles on Agile, AI, and Project Management:
- Agile for Unicorns: 7 Keys to Thrive; Scott M. Graffius’ Workshop
- Meta and Anduril’s EagleEye and the Future of XR: How Gaming, AI, and Agile Are Transforming Defense
- AI in Agile: Benefits, Risks, Outlook
- National Science Foundation’s LTER Network Features Scott M. Graffius’ Phases of Team Development IP
- Scott M. Graffius Delivering $2.3 Billion in Value Through AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Leadership
- NESEA Conference Session on Innovation Highlights Scott M. Graffius' 'Phases of Team Development'
- U.S. Soccer Scores with Scott M. Graffius' Intellectual Property on Teamwork
- Scott M. Graffius' Role in Advancing Project Management Institute (PMI) Standards Excellence
- When Agile, AI, and Strategic Thinking Converge
- Scott M. Graffius’ Phases of Team Development: 2025 Update
- Scott M. Graffius' 'Phases of Team Development' was Spotlighted in Journal of Neurosurgery
- Hochschule Coburg (Coburg University) Germany Uses Scott M. Graffius’ Phases of Team Development IP in Coursework on Agile Development
- EU Europass Teacher Academy Features Scott M. Graffius’ ‘Phases of Team Development’ in Leadership Training
- Tufts University Features Scott M. Graffius 'Phases of Team Development' Intellectual Property
- Bayer Employs Scott M. Graffius' Intellectual Property
- Semiconductor Manufacturing Firm Lam Research Features Scott M. Graffius' 'Phases of Team Development' Intellectual Property
- Scott M. Graffius Speaking on Agile, AI, and Innovation at a Private Event in Dubai
- Cisco Features Scott M. Graffius' 'Phases of Team Development' Work
- Scott M. Graffius Speaking on Successful AI at DevDays Europe 2024 Conference
- University of California, San Diego Features Scott M. Graffius’ ‘Phases of Team Development’ Work
- AI is a Team Sport
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius is an AI, Agile, and Project Management/PMO leader, researcher, author, and speaker. Along the way, he spearheaded initiatives that have generated over $2.3 billion in impact for organizations across tech, entertainment, finance, healthcare, and beyond. The following sections provide additional information on his experience, contributions, and influence.
Experience
Graffius heads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded expertise, and consulting services to the public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™.
Graffius is a former VP of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more.
He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
Award-Winning Author
Graffius has authored three books.
- Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions, his first book, earned 17 awards.
- Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change, his second book, was named one of the best Scrum books of all time by BookAuthority.
- Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum, his third book and his first work of fiction, was released in April 2025. The book trailer is on YouTube.
International Public Speaker
Organizations worldwide engage Graffius to present on tech (including AI), Agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership. He crafts and delivers unique and compelling talks and workshops. To date, Graffius has conducted 94 sessions across 25 countries. Select examples of events include Agile Trends Gov, BSides (Newcastle Upon Tyne), Conf42 Quantum Computing, DevDays Europe, DevOps Institute, DevOpsDays (Geneva), Frug’Agile, IEEE, Microsoft, Scottish Summit, Scrum Alliance RSG (Nepal), Techstars, and W Love Games International Video Game Development Conference (Helsinki), and more.
With an average rating of 4.81 (on a scale of 1-5), sessions are highly valued.
The speaker engagement request form is here.
Thought Leadership and Influence
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have showcased Graffius and his contributions—spanning his books, talks, workshops, and beyond. Select examples include:
- Adobe,
- American Management Association,
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
- Bayer,
- BMC Software,
- Boston University,
- Broadcom,
- Cisco,
- Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts - Germany,
- Computer Weekly,
- Constructor University - Germany,
- Data Governance Success,
- Deimos Aerospace,
- DevOps Institute,
- Dropbox,
- EU's European Commission,
- Ford Motor Company,
- Gartner,
- GoDaddy,
- Harvard Medical School,
- Hasso Plattner Institute - Germany,
- IEEE,
- Innovation Project Management,
- Johns Hopkins University,
- Journal of Neurosurgery,
- Lam Research (Semiconductors),
- Leadership Worthy,
- Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
- London South Bank University,
- Microsoft,
- NASSCOM,
- National Academy of Sciences,
- New Zealand Government,
- Oracle,
- Pinterest Inc.,
- Project Management Institute,
- Mary Raum (Professor of National Security Affairs, United States Naval War College),
- SANS Institute,
- SBG Neumark - Germany,
- Singapore Institute of Technology,
- Torrens University - Australia,
- TBS Switzerland,
- Tufts University,
- UC San Diego,
- UK Sports Institute,
- University of Galway - Ireland,
- US Department of Energy,
- US National Park Service,
- US Soccer,
- US Tennis Association,
- Verizon,
- Wrike,
- Yale University,
- and many others.
Graffius has played a key role in the Project Management Institute (PMI) in developing professional standards. He was a member of multiple teams that authored, reviewed, and produced:
- Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition.
- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition.
- The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition.
- The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition.
Additional details are here.
He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Acclaimed Authority on Teamwork Tradecraft
Graffius is a renowned authority on teamwork tradecraft. Informed by the research of Bruce W. Tuckman and Mary Ann C. Jensen, over 100 subsequent studies, and Graffius' first-hand professional experience with, and analysis of, team leadership and performance, Graffius created his 'Phases of Team Development' as a unique perspective and visual conveying the five phases of team development. First introduced in 2008 and periodically updated, his work provides a diagnostic and strategic guide for navigating team dynamics. It provides actionable insights for leaders across industries to develop high-performance teams. Its adoption by esteemed organizations such as Yale University, IEEE, Cisco, Microsoft, Ford, Oracle, Broadcom, the U.S. National Park Service, and the Journal of Neurosurgery, among others, highlights its utility and value, solidifying its status as an indispensable resource for elevating team performance and driving organizational excellence.
The 2025 edition of Graffius' "Phases of Team Development" intellectual property is here.
Expert on Temporal Dynamics on Social Media Platforms
Graffius is also an authority on temporal dynamics on social media platforms. His 'Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts' research—first published in 2018 and updated annually—delivers a precise quantitative analysis of post longevity across digital platforms, utilizing advanced statistical techniques to determine mean half-life with precision. It establishes a solid empirical base, effectively highlighting the ephemeral nature of content within social media ecosystems. Referenced and applied by leading entities such as the Center for Direct Marketing, Fast Company, GoDaddy, Pinterest Inc., and PNAS, among others, his research exemplifies methodological rigor and sustained significance in the field of digital informatics.
The 2025 edition of Graffius "Lifespan (Half-Life) of Social Media Posts" research is here.
Education and Professional Certifications
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
- Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
- Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
- Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
- Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
- Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
- Project Management Professional (PMP),
- Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
- IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Advancing AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management
Scott M. Graffius continues to advance the fields of AI, Agile, and Project/PMO Management through his leadership, research, writing, and real-world impact. Businesses and other organizations leverage Graffius’ insights to drive their success.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
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How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, June 25). The “Pants-on-Fire Index for AI”. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/pants-on-fire-index-for-ai.html. 
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: (coming soon)
Content Acknowledgements
Names, marks, and content are the property of their respective owners.
PMI and PMI Infinity names, marks, and content are the property of the Project Management Institute, Inc. 
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Post-Publication Notes
If there are any supplements or updates to this article after the date of publication, they will appear here.
Update on 8 July 2025
See the related story, AI Showcase Showdown: Ranking AI Accuracy on Project Management Basics.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.