#Causation
The 3 Vital Rules of Science: What They Are and Why They Matter
06 May 2025
BY SCOTT M. GRAFFIUS | ScottGraffius.com
Introduction
Ever wonder why some "scientific" claims sound convincing but fall apart under scrutiny? Science isn’t just a collection of facts—it’s a disciplined process for understanding the world. In today’s flood of information and competing claims, being fluent in the logic and rigor of science is more valuable than ever.
Scott M. Graffius shared a visual—similar to the one that heads-up this article—via social media. It garnered attention from professionals across disciplines. Prompted by the interest it generated, Graffius developed this article to provide deeper insight into the concepts behind the visual: falsifiability, replicability, and the critical distinction that correlation is not causation.
These principles are foundational to the scientific method and are frequently misunderstood. Together, they offer a powerful lens for evaluating claims, research rigor, and the validity of conclusions.
Falsifiability
Falsifiability means a scientific claim or hypothesis must be testable—and potentially provable wrong. Championed by philosopher Karl Popper, this idea is essential to science’s integrity. For example, “All swans are white” is falsifiable: a single black swan disproves it. In contrast, vague claims like “This crystal boosts your energy in ways science can’t measure” aren’t science. Falsifiability ensures ideas are grounded in evidence, not just belief or anecdote.
A real-world example is Einstein’s theory of general relativity. Einstein predicted that massive objects like the sun could bend light—a bold, falsifiable claim. In 1919, during a solar eclipse, astronomers led by Arthur Eddington tested this by observing starlight bending around the sun, exactly as Einstein predicted. If the light hadn’t bent, the theory could have been disproven—a hallmark of true science. This ability to be tested and potentially refuted sets scientific claims apart from pseudoscience or speculation.
Replicability
Replicability means an experiment or study should yield the same results when repeated under identical conditions. It’s how science builds trust and advances. If a finding can’t be replicated, its reliability is questionable. The “replication crisis” in fields like psychology and medicine has highlighted this principle, as many high-profile studies failed to hold up when retested.
A notable case is a 2011 study on “ego depletion,” which suggested that self-control draws from a limited pool of mental energy, reducing the ability to exert it elsewhere. The idea gained traction, influencing workplace productivity strategies and personal development advice. For example, people were advised to tackle tough tasks early to “save” mental energy. Yet, a 2016 large-scale replication effort with over 2,000 participants across multiple labs failed to reproduce the effect. This raised doubts about the validity of ego depletion and underscored the need for replication to distinguish genuine insights from flawed findings.
Replicability isn’t about perfection—it’s about transparency, rigor, and enabling the scientific community to verify and build on discoveries.
Correlation is Not Causation
One of the most misunderstood principles in science and statistics is the difference between correlation and causation. Just because two things occur together doesn’t mean one causes the other.
In the business world, a notable example involves the assumption that implementing employee wellness programs directly leads to improved company performance. Early studies observed that companies with such programs often reported better financial outcomes, leading to the belief that the wellness initiatives were the cause of this success. However, subsequent research, including a comprehensive randomized controlled trial conducted by the University of Chicago and Harvard University, found that while wellness programs might encourage some healthy behaviors, they did not significantly impact clinical health measures, healthcare spending, or job performance. This suggests that the initial correlation was likely influenced by other factors, such as the possibility that more successful companies have more resources to invest in wellness programs, rather than the programs themselves driving financial success. This example underscores the importance of not conflating correlation with causation.
By contrast, science can confirm causation. Take regular exercise: decades of research, from randomized trials to longitudinal studies, show it directly boosts cardiovascular health. Aerobic activity strengthens the heart, lowers blood pressure, and cuts heart disease risk—effects backed by clear biological evidence. Distinguishing correlation from causation is critical, as mistaking one for the other can lead to flawed conclusions, poor policies, and misleading headlines. Sound science digs deeper, using experiments and analysis to uncover cause-and-effect relationships.
Conclusion
The scientific method thrives on curiosity but demands discipline. Falsifiability, replicability, and the distinction between correlation and causation aren’t just academic concepts—they’re practical tools for critical thinking. Whether evaluating research, assessing a health claim, or analyzing business data, these rules help separate the meaningful from the merely suggestive. Embrace these principles, and you’ll not only navigate today’s flood of information with confidence but also inspire others to think critically in a world that needs it more than ever.
More
Read on for…
Bibliography
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius sparks breakthroughs in AI, agile, and project management/PMO leadership as a globally recognized practitioner, researcher, thought leader, award-winning author, and international public speaker.
Graffius has generated more than USD $2.3 billion in business value for organizations served, including Fortune 500 companies. Businesses and industries range from technology (including R&D and AI) to entertainment, financial services, and healthcare, government, social media, and more.
Graffius leads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded talent, and consulting services to public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™. Graffius is a former vice president of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more. He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
He is the author of three books.
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have featured Graffius and his work including content from his books, talks, workshops, and more. Select examples include:
Graffius has been actively involved with the Project Management Institute (PMI) in the development of professional standards. He was a member of the team which produced the Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition. Graffius was a contributor and reviewer of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition, The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition, and The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition. He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
He divides his time between Los Angeles and Paris, France.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, May 6). The 3 Vital Rules of Science: What They Are and Why They Matter. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/3-vital-rules-of-science-what-they-are-and-why-they-matter.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: (coming soon)
Content Acknowledgements
Names and marks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.
Introduction
Ever wonder why some "scientific" claims sound convincing but fall apart under scrutiny? Science isn’t just a collection of facts—it’s a disciplined process for understanding the world. In today’s flood of information and competing claims, being fluent in the logic and rigor of science is more valuable than ever.
Scott M. Graffius shared a visual—similar to the one that heads-up this article—via social media. It garnered attention from professionals across disciplines. Prompted by the interest it generated, Graffius developed this article to provide deeper insight into the concepts behind the visual: falsifiability, replicability, and the critical distinction that correlation is not causation.
These principles are foundational to the scientific method and are frequently misunderstood. Together, they offer a powerful lens for evaluating claims, research rigor, and the validity of conclusions.
Falsifiability
Falsifiability means a scientific claim or hypothesis must be testable—and potentially provable wrong. Championed by philosopher Karl Popper, this idea is essential to science’s integrity. For example, “All swans are white” is falsifiable: a single black swan disproves it. In contrast, vague claims like “This crystal boosts your energy in ways science can’t measure” aren’t science. Falsifiability ensures ideas are grounded in evidence, not just belief or anecdote.
A real-world example is Einstein’s theory of general relativity. Einstein predicted that massive objects like the sun could bend light—a bold, falsifiable claim. In 1919, during a solar eclipse, astronomers led by Arthur Eddington tested this by observing starlight bending around the sun, exactly as Einstein predicted. If the light hadn’t bent, the theory could have been disproven—a hallmark of true science. This ability to be tested and potentially refuted sets scientific claims apart from pseudoscience or speculation.
Replicability
Replicability means an experiment or study should yield the same results when repeated under identical conditions. It’s how science builds trust and advances. If a finding can’t be replicated, its reliability is questionable. The “replication crisis” in fields like psychology and medicine has highlighted this principle, as many high-profile studies failed to hold up when retested.
A notable case is a 2011 study on “ego depletion,” which suggested that self-control draws from a limited pool of mental energy, reducing the ability to exert it elsewhere. The idea gained traction, influencing workplace productivity strategies and personal development advice. For example, people were advised to tackle tough tasks early to “save” mental energy. Yet, a 2016 large-scale replication effort with over 2,000 participants across multiple labs failed to reproduce the effect. This raised doubts about the validity of ego depletion and underscored the need for replication to distinguish genuine insights from flawed findings.
Replicability isn’t about perfection—it’s about transparency, rigor, and enabling the scientific community to verify and build on discoveries.
Correlation is Not Causation
One of the most misunderstood principles in science and statistics is the difference between correlation and causation. Just because two things occur together doesn’t mean one causes the other.
In the business world, a notable example involves the assumption that implementing employee wellness programs directly leads to improved company performance. Early studies observed that companies with such programs often reported better financial outcomes, leading to the belief that the wellness initiatives were the cause of this success. However, subsequent research, including a comprehensive randomized controlled trial conducted by the University of Chicago and Harvard University, found that while wellness programs might encourage some healthy behaviors, they did not significantly impact clinical health measures, healthcare spending, or job performance. This suggests that the initial correlation was likely influenced by other factors, such as the possibility that more successful companies have more resources to invest in wellness programs, rather than the programs themselves driving financial success. This example underscores the importance of not conflating correlation with causation.
By contrast, science can confirm causation. Take regular exercise: decades of research, from randomized trials to longitudinal studies, show it directly boosts cardiovascular health. Aerobic activity strengthens the heart, lowers blood pressure, and cuts heart disease risk—effects backed by clear biological evidence. Distinguishing correlation from causation is critical, as mistaking one for the other can lead to flawed conclusions, poor policies, and misleading headlines. Sound science digs deeper, using experiments and analysis to uncover cause-and-effect relationships.
Conclusion
The scientific method thrives on curiosity but demands discipline. Falsifiability, replicability, and the distinction between correlation and causation aren’t just academic concepts—they’re practical tools for critical thinking. Whether evaluating research, assessing a health claim, or analyzing business data, these rules help separate the meaningful from the merely suggestive. Embrace these principles, and you’ll not only navigate today’s flood of information with confidence but also inspire others to think critically in a world that needs it more than ever.
More
Read on for…
- Bibliography
- About Scott M. Graffius
- How to Cite This Article
- And more
Bibliography
- Baicker, K., Song, Z., & Cutler, D. M. (2019, April 16). Workplace Wellness Programs Fail to Improve Health, Study Finds. University of Chicago News. Available at: https://news.uchicago.edu/story/workplace-wellness-programs-fail-improve-health-study-finds.
- Croft, J., Parks, A., & Whillans, A. (2024, October 18). Why Workplace Well-Being Programs Don’t Achieve Better Outcomes. Harvard Business Review. Available at: https://hbr.org/2024/10/why-workplace-well-being-programs-dont-achieve-better-outcomes.
- Godfrey-Smith, P. (2003). Theory and Reality: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (2nd edition). University of Chicago Press.
- Graffius, Scott M. (2023, June). What Successful AI Teams Have in Common. ResearchGate. Available at: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.29382.45120.
- Greenland, S., Pearl, J., & Robins, J. M. (1999). Causal Diagrams for Epidemiologic Research. Epidemiology, 10 (1): 37–48.
- Hacking, I. (1983). Representing and Intervening: Introductory Topics in the Philosophy of Natural Science. Cambridge University Press.
- Haack, S. (2003). Defending Science—Within Reason: Between Scientism and Cynicism. Prometheus Books.
- Hempel, C. G. (1966). Philosophy of Natural Science. Prentice-Hall.
- Lakatos, I. (1978). The Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes. Cambridge University Press.
- Meehl, P. E. (1978). Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 46 (4): 806–834.
- Meehl, P. E. (1990). Why Summaries of Research on Psychological Theories Are Often Uninterpretable. Psychological Reports, 66 (1): 195–244.
- Miller, J. (2019, April 16). Do wellness programs work? Harvard Medical School. Available at: https://hms.harvard.edu/news/do-wellness-programs-work.
- Morris, A. (2018, February 18). 3 Vital Rules of Science, in Plain English. Forbes.
- National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, et al. (2019, May 7). Reproducibility and Replicability in Science. National Academies Press (US). Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK547546/.
- Nosek, B. A., et al. (2015). Promoting an Open Research Culture. Science, 348 (6242): 1422–1425.
- Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (2nd edition). Cambridge University Press.
- Popper, K. R. (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge.
- Schickore, J. (2014). The Philosophy of Scientific Experimentation. Cambridge University Press.
- Shadish, W. R., Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (2002). Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Houghton Mifflin.
- Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.
- Wasserstein, R. L., & Lazar, N. A. (2016). The ASA’s Statement on P-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose. The American Statistician, 70 (2): 129–133.
About Scott M. Graffius
Scott M. Graffius sparks breakthroughs in AI, agile, and project management/PMO leadership as a globally recognized practitioner, researcher, thought leader, award-winning author, and international public speaker.
Graffius has generated more than USD $2.3 billion in business value for organizations served, including Fortune 500 companies. Businesses and industries range from technology (including R&D and AI) to entertainment, financial services, and healthcare, government, social media, and more.
Graffius leads the professional services firm Exceptional PPM and PMO Solutions, along with its subsidiary Exceptional Agility. These consultancies offer strategic and tactical advisory, training, embedded talent, and consulting services to public, private, and government sectors. They help organizations enhance their capabilities and results in agile, project management, program management, portfolio management, and PMO leadership, supporting innovation and driving competitive advantage. The consultancies confidently back services with a Delighted Client Guarantee™. Graffius is a former vice president of project management with a publicly traded provider of diverse consumer products and services over the Internet. Before that, he ran and supervised the delivery of projects and programs in public and private organizations with businesses ranging from e-commerce to advanced technology products and services, retail, manufacturing, entertainment, and more. He has experience with consumer, business, reseller, government, and international markets.
He is the author of three books.
- Graffius' first book, Agile Scrum: Your Quick Start Guide with Step-by-Step Instructions (paperback ISBN-13: 9781533370242) (Kindle ebook ASIN: B01FZ0JIIY), received 17 awards.
- His second book is Agile Transformation: A Brief Story of How an Entertainment Company Developed New Capabilities and Unlocked Business Agility to Thrive in an Era of Rapid Change (paperback ISBN-13: 9781072447962) (Kindle ebook ASIN: B07R9LJLPJ). BookAuthority named it one of the best Scrum books of all time.
- His third book—his first work of fiction—is Agile Protocol: The Transformation Ultimatum (Kindle ebook ASIN: B0F2SJ83WT) (Audible audiobook ASIN: B0DJG163R5).
Prominent businesses, professional associations, government agencies, and universities have featured Graffius and his work including content from his books, talks, workshops, and more. Select examples include:
- Adobe,
- American Management Association,
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute,
- Bayer,
- BMC Software,
- Boston University,
- Broadcom,
- Cisco,
- Coburg University of Applied Sciences and Arts Germany,
- Computer Weekly,
- Constructor University Germany,
- Data Governance Success,
- Deimos Aerospace,
- DevOps Institute,
- EU's European Commission,
- Ford Motor Company,
- GoDaddy,
- Harvard Medical School,
- Hasso Plattner Institute Germany,
- IEEE,
- Innovation Project Management,
- Johns Hopkins University,
- Journal of Neurosurgery,
- Lam Research (Semiconductors),
- Leadership Worthy,
- Life Sciences Trainers and Educators Network,
- London South Bank University,
- Microsoft,
- NASSCOM,
- National Academy of Sciences,
- New Zealand Government,
- Oracle,
- Pinterest Inc.,
- Project Management Institute,
- SANS Institute,
- SBG Neumark Germany,
- Singapore Institute of Technology,
- Torrens University Australia,
- TBS Switzerland,
- Tufts University,
- UC San Diego,
- UK Sports Institute,
- University of Galway Ireland,
- US Department of Energy,
- US National Park Service,
- US Tennis Association,
- Veleučilište u Rijeci Croatia,
- Verizon,
- Virginia Tech,
- Warsaw University of Technology,
- Wrike,
- Yale University,
- and many others.
Graffius has been actively involved with the Project Management Institute (PMI) in the development of professional standards. He was a member of the team which produced the Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures—Second Edition. Graffius was a contributor and reviewer of A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge—Sixth Edition, The Standard for Program Management—Fourth Edition, and The Practice Standard for Project Estimating—Second Edition. He was also a subject matter expert reviewer of content for the PMI’s Congress. Beyond the PMI, Graffius also served as a member of the review team for two of the Scrum Alliance’s Global Scrum Gatherings.
Graffius has a bachelor’s degree in psychology with a focus in Human Factors. He holds eight professional certifications:
- Certified SAFe 6 Agilist (SA),
- Certified Scrum Professional - ScrumMaster (CSP-SM),
- Certified Scrum Professional - Product Owner (CSP-PO),
- Certified ScrumMaster (CSM),
- Certified Scrum Product Owner (CSPO),
- Project Management Professional (PMP),
- Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (LSSGB), and
- IT Service Management Foundation (ITIL).
He is an active member of the Scrum Alliance, the Project Management Institute (PMI), and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
He divides his time between Los Angeles and Paris, France.
Thought Leader | Public Speaker | Agile Protocol Book | Agile Scrum Book | Agile Transformation Book | Blog | Photo | X | LinkedIn | Email
How to Cite This Article
Graffius, Scott M. (2025, May 6). The 3 Vital Rules of Science: What They Are and Why They Matter. Available at: https://scottgraffius.com/blog/files/3-vital-rules-of-science-what-they-are-and-why-they-matter.html.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
DOI: (coming soon)
Content Acknowledgements
Names and marks are the property of their respective owners.
Copyright
Copyright © Scott M. Graffius. All rights reserved.
Content on this site—including text, images, videos, and data—may not be used for training or input into any artificial intelligence, machine learning, or automatized learning systems, or published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the express written permission of Scott M. Graffius.